RESEARCH ONLY — no real-money trading exists in this app. The model is an unvalidated heuristic; treat every number here as a hypothesis, settled against a price proxy, not official Kalshi settlement.
Forecast unavailable — this version is not ready to provide validated betting recommendations.
Composite price (median)
80,446.08
CoinbaseKrakenBitstamp
Window closes in
3:39
next checkpoint +12m in 0:39 · elapsed 11:20
Reference (window open)
80,379.97
settlement proxy: final-minute candle vs reference
Signal (research only)UP
52.7%P(up)
down 47.3%up 52.7%
- Model EV (called side)
- —
- Kalshi YES quote
- unavailable· manual below
- Shrink factor k
- 0.3 (300 settled)
- Composite vs reference
- +66.11
Unvalidated heuristic. Keep this tab open. Do not risk real money until the track record is clearly profitable after fees over 100+ windows.
Indicators: EMA9 80,444.38 · EMA21 80,436.06 · RSI14 59.1 · 5-min momentum -0.001%
Track record (all logged windows)
Settled calls
520
Accuracy
55%
Paper P&L (¢/contract)
+85¢
Brier score
0.246
Calibration shrink k = 0.3 fit on the last 300 settled calls (needs 40+). The honest test: if this isn't clearly profitable after fees over 100+ windows, don't trade real money on it.
Prediction log · saved at 3, 6, 9 and 12 minutes into each window · proxy-settled
| Window | At | Asset | Called | P(up) | EV | Result | Right? | Paper ¢ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 PM | +9m | BTC | up | 58.9% | — | pending | — | — |
| 07:45 PM | +3m | BTC | up | 53.0% | — | pending | — | — |
| 07:45 PM | +12m | BTC | down | 47.0% | — | down | yes | — |
| 06:30 PM | +3m | BTC | up | 55.1% | — | down | no | — |
| 06:30 PM | +9m | BTC | up | 53.3% | — | down | no | — |
| 06:30 PM | +6m | BTC | up | 53.3% | — | down | no | — |
| 06:00 PM | +3m | BTC | up | 53.0% | — | up | yes | — |
| 06:00 PM | +12m | BTC | up | 55.3% | — | up | yes | — |
| 05:45 PM | +12m | BTC | up | 55.4% | — | up | yes | — |
| 05:45 PM | +6m | BTC | up | 58.6% | — | up | yes | — |
| 05:45 PM | +9m | BTC | up | 55.4% | — | up | yes | — |
| 05:30 PM | +6m | BTC | down | 45.3% | — | down | yes | — |
| 05:30 PM | +9m | BTC | down | 46.6% | — | down | yes | — |
| 05:15 PM | +12m | BTC | up | 54.6% | — | up | yes | — |
| 05:15 PM | +6m | BTC | up | 54.6% | — | up | yes | — |
| 05:15 PM | +3m | BTC | down | 49.0% | — | up | no | — |
| 05:00 PM | +12m | BTC | down | 49.1% | — | down | yes | — |
| 05:00 PM | +9m | BTC | down | 45.9% | — | down | yes | — |
| 05:00 PM | +6m | BTC | up | 54.7% | — | down | no | — |
| 05:00 PM | +3m | BTC | up | 60.1% | — | pending | — | — |
| 04:45 PM | +9m | BTC | up | 70.9% | — | up | yes | — |
| 04:45 PM | +3m | BTC | up | 67.3% | — | up | yes | — |
| 04:45 PM | +12m | BTC | up | 63.3% | — | up | yes | — |
| 04:30 PM | +9m | BTC | up | 51.8% | — | up | yes | — |
| 04:30 PM | +3m | BTC | down | 40.9% | — | up | no | — |
| 04:30 PM | +6m | BTC | up | 51.8% | — | up | yes | — |
| 04:15 PM | +6m | BTC | down | 32.6% | — | down | yes | — |
| 04:15 PM | +9m | BTC | down | 49.4% | — | up | no | — |
| 04:00 PM | +9m | BTC | up | 60.3% | — | up | yes | — |
| 04:00 PM | +12m | BTC | up | 58.3% | — | up | yes | — |
| 04:00 PM | +6m | BTC | up | 60.9% | — | up | yes | — |
| 03:45 PM | +6m | BTC | up | 54.7% | — | up | yes | — |
| 03:30 PM | +9m | BTC | down | 48.6% | — | up | no | — |
| 03:30 PM | +6m | BTC | up | 53.1% | — | up | yes | — |
| 03:30 PM | +3m | BTC | up | 56.1% | — | up | yes | — |
| 02:45 PM | +6m | BTC | down | 40.3% | — | down | yes | — |
| 02:45 PM | +3m | BTC | down | 40.3% | — | down | yes | — |
| 02:00 PM | +6m | BTC | down | 31.2% | — | pending | — | — |
| 01:30 PM | +9m | BTC | down | 40.3% | — | down | yes | — |
| 12:30 PM | +9m | BTC | up | 62.1% | — | up | yes | — |
| 12:30 PM | +6m | BTC | up | 80.6% | — | pending | — | — |
| 12:15 PM | +12m | BTC | up | 67.1% | — | up | yes | — |
| 11:30 AM | +6m | BTC | down | 41.3% | — | up | no | — |
| 11:30 AM | +3m | BTC | down | 45.8% | — | pending | — | — |
| 10:15 AM | +12m | BTC | down | 45.8% | — | up | no | — |
| 10:15 AM | +9m | BTC | down | 45.8% | — | up | no | — |
| 10:15 AM | +6m | BTC | down | 44.7% | — | up | no | — |
| 10:15 AM | +3m | BTC | up | 71.5% | — | pending | — | — |
| 06:00 AM | +6m | BTC | down | 40.3% | — | up | no | — |
| 06:00 AM | +3m | BTC | down | 31.3% | — | up | no | — |
| 04:15 AM | +3m | BTC | down | 35.6% | — | down | yes | — |
| 04:15 AM | +12m | BTC | down | 28.2% | — | down | yes | — |
| 04:00 AM | +12m | BTC | up | 50.3% | — | down | no | — |
| 04:00 AM | +9m | BTC | up | 61.4% | — | pending | — | — |
| 02:30 AM | +6m | BTC | up | 57.2% | — | down | no | — |
| 02:30 AM | +3m | BTC | up | 57.2% | — | down | no | — |
| 02:15 AM | +12m | BTC | down | 46.7% | — | up | no | — |
| 02:15 AM | +9m | BTC | down | 47.4% | — | up | no | — |
| 02:15 AM | +6m | BTC | up | 58.4% | — | pending | — | — |
| 02:00 AM | +9m | BTC | up | 54.2% | — | up | yes | — |
| 02:00 AM | +6m | BTC | up | 54.2% | — | up | yes | — |
| 02:00 AM | +3m | BTC | up | 61.8% | — | pending | — | — |
| 01:45 AM | +6m | BTC | up | 58.4% | — | up | yes | — |
| 01:45 AM | +3m | BTC | down | 49.6% | — | pending | — | — |
| 01:15 AM | +12m | BTC | up | 50.5% | — | up | yes | — |
| 01:15 AM | +6m | BTC | up | 57.1% | — | up | yes | — |
| 01:15 AM | +3m | BTC | up | 54.9% | — | pending | — | — |
| 11:00 PM | +9m | BTC | down | 42.7% | — | up | no | — |
| 11:00 PM | +6m | BTC | up | 51.1% | — | down | no | — |
| 10:30 PM | +3m | BTC | down | 34.7% | — | down | yes | — |
| 09:45 PM | +9m | BTC | down | 42.2% | — | up | no | — |
| 09:45 PM | +3m | BTC | down | 46.5% | — | pending | — | — |
| 09:30 PM | +3m | BTC | down | 42.8% | — | down | yes | — |
| 09:15 PM | +3m | BTC | up | 50.2% | — | down | no | — |
| 09:00 PM | +12m | BTC | down | 48.1% | — | up | no | — |
| 09:00 PM | +9m | BTC | down | 48.1% | — | up | no | — |
| 08:15 PM | +9m | BTC | up | 63.2% | — | up | yes | — |
| 08:00 PM | +12m | BTC | up | 68.8% | — | up | yes | — |
| 06:45 PM | +9m | BTC | down | 43.6% | — | pending | — | — |
| 05:30 PM | +3m | BTC | down | 43.6% | — | down | yes | — |
| 05:15 PM | +6m | BTC | down | 39.1% | — | pending | — | — |
| 04:15 PM | +12m | BTC | down | 46.7% | — | down | yes | — |
| 03:45 PM | +9m | BTC | down | 49.9% | — | up | no | — |
| 03:30 PM | +12m | BTC | down | 46.2% | — | down | yes | — |
| 03:30 PM | +6m | BTC | down | 48.8% | — | down | yes | — |
| 03:15 PM | +3m | BTC | down | 38.9% | — | pending | — | — |
| 02:45 PM | +12m | BTC | up | 52.7% | — | down | no | — |
| 02:45 PM | +9m | BTC | up | 52.7% | — | down | no | — |
| 02:45 PM | +6m | BTC | up | 59.7% | — | down | no | — |
| 02:45 PM | +3m | BTC | up | 59.7% | — | down | no | — |
| 02:00 PM | +12m | BTC | down | 30.2% | — | down | yes | — |
| 01:45 PM | +9m | BTC | up | 52.0% | — | up | yes | — |
| 01:45 PM | +6m | BTC | up | 55.5% | — | up | yes | — |
| 01:45 PM | +3m | BTC | up | 55.5% | — | up | yes | — |
| 12:30 PM | +12m | BTC | down | 35.0% | — | pending | — | — |
| 12:00 PM | +3m | BTC | down | 43.9% | — | down | yes | — |
| 11:45 AM | +9m | BTC | up | 53.2% | — | up | yes | — |
| 11:45 AM | +6m | BTC | up | 52.3% | — | up | yes | — |
| 11:45 AM | +3m | BTC | up | 52.3% | — | up | yes | — |
| 11:15 AM | +9m | BTC | down | 47.9% | — | up | no | — |
| 11:15 AM | +6m | BTC | down | 47.9% | — | up | no | — |
| 11:15 AM | +3m | BTC | down | 49.3% | — | up | no | — |
| 11:00 AM | +9m | BTC | down | 43.9% | — | down | yes | — |
| 11:00 AM | +6m | BTC | down | 43.9% | — | down | yes | — |
| 11:00 AM | +3m | BTC | down | 47.1% | — | pending | — | — |
| 10:45 AM | +12m | BTC | down | 44.0% | — | down | yes | — |
| 10:45 AM | +9m | BTC | up | 51.4% | — | down | no | — |
| 10:45 AM | +6m | BTC | up | 51.4% | — | down | no | — |
| 10:45 AM | +3m | BTC | up | 58.6% | — | pending | — | — |
| 09:00 AM | +6m | BTC | down | 49.2% | — | up | no | — |
| 12:45 AM | +12m | BTC | up | 63.7% | — | pending | — | — |
| 12:45 AM | +9m | BTC | up | 64.9% | — | pending | — | — |
| 12:45 AM | +3m | BTC | up | 81.2% | — | pending | — | — |
| 11:45 PM | +9m | BTC | up | 74.1% | — | up | yes | — |
| 11:45 PM | +3m | BTC | up | 53.5% | — | up | yes | — |
| 11:15 PM | +6m | BTC | down | 48.7% | — | down | yes | — |
| 08:45 PM | +6m | BTC | up | 54.9% | — | pending | — | — |
| 07:00 PM | +9m | BTC | up | 51.3% | +51.2¢ | up | yes | +100¢ |
| 07:00 PM | +6m | BTC | up | 52.1% | +52.0¢ | down | no | -0¢ |
| 07:00 PM | +3m | BTC | up | 53.2% | +53.1¢ | pending | — | — |
| 06:45 PM | +12m | BTC | up | 57.7% | — | up | yes | — |
| 06:45 PM | +9m | BTC | up | 57.7% | — | up | yes | — |
| 06:45 PM | +6m | BTC | up | 64.9% | — | up | yes | — |
| 06:45 PM | +3m | BTC | up | 64.9% | — | up | yes | — |
| 06:15 PM | +6m | BTC | up | 57.1% | — | up | yes | — |
| 06:15 PM | +3m | BTC | down | 44.1% | — | up | no | — |
| 06:15 PM | +12m | BTC | up | 51.4% | — | up | yes | — |
| 06:00 PM | +12m | BTC | down | 38.8% | — | down | yes | — |
| 06:00 PM | +9m | BTC | down | 43.2% | — | up | no | — |
| 06:00 PM | +6m | BTC | down | 30.8% | — | down | yes | — |
| 06:00 PM | +3m | BTC | down | 38.7% | — | pending | — | — |
| 05:45 PM | +12m | BTC | down | 29.8% | — | down | yes | — |
| 05:45 PM | +9m | BTC | up | 55.5% | — | down | no | — |
| 05:45 PM | +3m | BTC | up | 58.7% | — | down | no | — |
| 05:30 PM | +12m | BTC | down | 47.7% | — | down | yes | — |
| 05:30 PM | +9m | BTC | down | 47.7% | — | down | yes | — |
| 05:30 PM | +6m | BTC | up | 56.1% | — | down | no | — |
| 05:30 PM | +3m | BTC | down | 47.7% | — | down | yes | — |
| 05:15 PM | +12m | BTC | up | 57.4% | — | up | yes | — |
| 05:15 PM | +9m | BTC | up | 57.4% | — | up | yes | — |
| 05:15 PM | +6m | BTC | up | 58.6% | — | up | yes | — |
| 05:15 PM | +3m | BTC | down | 39.9% | — | pending | — | — |
| 05:00 PM | +12m | BTC | up | 54.0% | — | down | no | — |
| 05:00 PM | +9m | BTC | up | 54.7% | — | down | no | — |
| 04:15 PM | +12m | BTC | down | 49.0% | — | up | no | — |
| 03:45 PM | +6m | BTC | down | 49.6% | — | up | no | — |
| 03:15 PM | +12m | BTC | down | 48.3% | — | up | no | — |
| 03:15 PM | +9m | BTC | down | 48.3% | — | up | no | — |
| 03:15 PM | +6m | BTC | down | 46.7% | — | up | no | — |
| 03:00 PM | +12m | BTC | down | 27.4% | — | down | yes | — |
| 03:00 PM | +3m | BTC | up | 52.4% | — | down | no | — |
| 02:00 PM | +12m | BTC | up | 52.0% | — | down | no | — |
| 12:00 PM | +3m | BTC | down | 48.3% | — | up | no | — |
| 11:30 AM | +12m | BTC | up | 54.8% | — | down | no | — |
| 11:30 AM | +9m | BTC | up | 54.8% | — | down | no | — |
| 11:30 AM | +6m | BTC | up | 51.7% | — | up | yes | — |
| 11:30 AM | +3m | BTC | down | 45.2% | — | up | no | — |
| 11:15 AM | +12m | BTC | down | 44.1% | — | down | yes | — |
| 11:15 AM | +9m | BTC | down | 40.8% | — | up | no | — |
| 11:15 AM | +6m | BTC | down | 47.9% | — | down | yes | — |
| 11:15 AM | +3m | BTC | down | 49.9% | — | up | no | — |
| 11:00 AM | +12m | BTC | down | 39.3% | — | down | yes | — |
| 11:00 AM | +9m | BTC | down | 43.8% | — | up | no | — |
| 11:00 AM | +6m | BTC | down | 43.3% | — | down | yes | — |
| 11:00 AM | +3m | BTC | down | 39.9% | — | pending | — | — |
| 10:45 AM | +9m | BTC | down | 44.9% | — | down | yes | — |
| 10:45 AM | +6m | BTC | down | 44.9% | — | down | yes | — |
| 10:45 AM | +3m | BTC | down | 46.3% | — | down | yes | — |
| 10:30 AM | +12m | BTC | up | 53.3% | — | up | yes | — |
| 10:30 AM | +9m | BTC | down | 46.6% | — | up | no | — |
| 10:30 AM | +6m | BTC | down | 46.6% | — | up | no | — |
| 10:30 AM | +3m | BTC | up | 50.6% | — | up | yes | — |
| 10:15 AM | +12m | BTC | up | 54.2% | — | down | no | — |
| 10:15 AM | +9m | BTC | up | 61.6% | — | down | no | — |
| 10:15 AM | +6m | BTC | up | 61.6% | — | down | no | — |
| 10:15 AM | +3m | BTC | down | 47.0% | — | up | no | — |
| 10:00 AM | +12m | BTC | up | 57.2% | — | up | yes | — |
| 10:00 AM | +9m | BTC | up | 57.2% | — | up | yes | — |
| 10:00 AM | +6m | BTC | up | 68.2% | — | up | yes | — |
| 10:00 AM | +3m | BTC | up | 63.2% | — | up | yes | — |
| 09:45 AM | +12m | BTC | up | 66.7% | — | up | yes | — |
| 09:45 AM | +9m | BTC | down | 23.5% | — | pending | — | — |
| 09:45 AM | +6m | BTC | up | 58.7% | — | up | yes | — |
| 09:45 AM | +3m | BTC | up | 52.7% | — | up | yes | — |
| 09:30 AM | +12m | BTC | up | 50.5% | — | up | yes | — |
| 09:30 AM | +9m | BTC | down | 44.0% | — | up | no | — |
| 09:30 AM | +6m | BTC | down | 44.0% | — | up | no | — |
| 09:30 AM | +3m | BTC | down | 44.0% | — | up | no | — |
| 09:15 AM | +6m | BTC | up | 55.9% | — | down | no | — |
| 09:15 AM | +3m | BTC | down | 44.8% | -50.5¢ | pending | — | — |
| 09:15 AM | +12m | BTC | down | 48.9% | — | down | yes | — |
| 09:15 AM | +9m | BTC | up | 55.9% | — | down | no | — |
| 09:00 AM | +12m | BTC | down | 41.5% | — | up | no | — |
| 09:00 AM | +9m | BTC | down | 41.5% | — | up | no | — |
| 08:30 AM | +9m | BTC | down | 27.0% | — | down | yes | — |
| 08:15 AM | +6m | BTC | down | 49.0% | — | down | yes | — |
| 08:15 AM | +3m | BTC | down | 49.0% | — | down | yes | — |
| 08:00 AM | +12m | BTC | down | 46.4% | — | down | yes | — |
| 08:00 AM | +9m | BTC | down | 44.7% | — | down | yes | — |
| 08:00 AM | +6m | BTC | down | 43.2% | — | down | yes | — |
| 08:00 AM | +3m | BTC | down | 45.9% | — | pending | — | — |
| 07:45 AM | +12m | BTC | down | 45.3% | — | down | yes | — |
| 07:45 AM | +9m | BTC | down | 45.8% | — | down | yes | — |
| 07:45 AM | +6m | BTC | down | 45.8% | — | down | yes | — |
| 07:45 AM | +3m | BTC | down | 48.7% | — | down | yes | — |
| 07:30 AM | +3m | BTC | up | 56.8% | +51.5¢ | up | yes | +95¢ |
| 07:15 AM | +9m | BTC | down | 48.1% | — | down | yes | — |
| 07:15 AM | +3m | BTC | down | 35.1% | — | down | yes | — |
| 06:45 AM | +12m | BTC | up | 51.5% | — | up | yes | — |
| 06:45 AM | +9m | BTC | down | 46.7% | — | down | yes | — |
| 06:45 AM | +6m | BTC | down | 42.3% | — | down | yes | — |
| 06:45 AM | +3m | BTC | down | 42.3% | — | down | yes | — |
| 05:45 AM | +12m | BTC | up | 50.4% | — | up | yes | — |
| 05:45 AM | +3m | BTC | down | 40.7% | — | pending | — | — |
| 05:30 AM | +12m | BTC | down | 42.6% | — | up | no | — |
| 02:00 AM | +9m | BTC | down | 9.1% | — | pending | — | — |
| 01:30 AM | +12m | BTC | down | 30.8% | — | down | yes | — |
| 01:30 AM | +9m | BTC | down | 30.8% | — | down | yes | — |
| 01:30 AM | +6m | BTC | up | 71.5% | — | pending | — | — |
| 01:15 AM | +9m | BTC | up | 59.1% | — | up | yes | — |
| 01:15 AM | +6m | BTC | up | 61.7% | — | up | yes | — |
| 01:15 AM | +3m | BTC | up | 61.7% | — | up | yes | — |
| 01:00 AM | +9m | BTC | down | 42.2% | — | up | no | — |
| 01:00 AM | +6m | BTC | up | 50.2% | — | pending | — | — |
| 12:15 AM | +12m | BTC | down | 47.8% | — | down | yes | — |
| 12:15 AM | +9m | BTC | up | 74.3% | — | pending | — | — |
| 12:00 AM | +3m | BTC | up | 52.5% | — | up | yes | — |
| 11:45 PM | +6m | BTC | down | 43.3% | — | down | yes | — |
| 11:45 PM | +3m | BTC | down | 47.3% | — | pending | — | — |
| 11:30 PM | +12m | BTC | down | 41.7% | — | down | yes | — |
| 11:30 PM | +6m | BTC | down | 37.7% | — | pending | — | — |
| 11:00 PM | +12m | BTC | down | 45.0% | — | down | yes | — |
| 11:00 PM | +6m | BTC | down | 38.3% | — | down | yes | — |
| 10:45 PM | +6m | BTC | down | 41.3% | — | pending | — | — |
| 10:30 PM | +3m | BTC | down | 41.3% | — | pending | — | — |
| 10:15 PM | +6m | BTC | down | 46.2% | — | pending | — | — |
| 10:00 PM | +9m | BTC | down | 46.2% | — | down | yes | — |
| 10:00 PM | +6m | BTC | down | 46.2% | — | down | yes | — |
| 09:45 PM | +6m | BTC | up | 51.0% | — | up | yes | — |
| 09:45 PM | +3m | BTC | down | 47.1% | — | up | no | — |
| 09:30 PM | +6m | BTC | up | 63.0% | — | up | yes | — |
Proxy settlement from the Coinbase candle close — not official Kalshi settlement. Reference at window open: 80,379.97.
