Cumulative paper P&L
No finalized paper trades yet — the curve fills as trades settle.
Strategy efficiency · by checkpoint
How the model performs at each call time inside the window (proxy-settled).
| Checkpoint | Calls | Accuracy | Paper P&L | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +3m | 107 | 59.8% | -15¢ | 0.244 |
| +6m | 131 | 59.5% | -105¢ | 0.226 |
| +9m | 136 | 47.8% | +5¢ | 0.284 |
| +12m | 137 | 59.1% | +100¢ | 0.245 |
By ticker
| Ticker | Trades | Win rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| No finalized trades yet. | |||
0 pending trade(s) awaiting settlement. P&L is per-contract paper cents vs Kalshi outcomes.
Prediction performance
How well recorded probabilities matched resolved outcomes. These scores do not measure trading profit.
313 scored forecasts · 164 distinct events · 287 excluded forecast records
Evaluation cutoff:
Dataset retrieved: · Blocked — integrity failure · Lead-time enforced · Snapshot age limit 5m
Cohort: 313 scored · 89 pending · 0 void · 287 excluded
Integrity: conflicting_event_records
81 events in this group. The earliest eligible forecast is scored for each event.
- Brier score
- 0.2306
- Log loss
- 0.6536
- Skill versus 50% baseline
- 7.8%
- Binned calibration gap
- 17.6%
95% interval: 0.2159–0.2452
Lower is better. Zero means perfect predictions on these outcomes.
Lower is better. Confidently wrong forecasts receive larger penalties.
Relative Brier improvement over always predicting 50%. Not a win rate.
Gap between forecast probabilities and outcome rates. Depends on sample size and bins.
Compared with the market
Both scores use the same 3 paired records.
- Model Brier
- 0.2977
- Market Brier
- 0.0008
- Brier improvement
- -0.2969
Model score on paired records only.
Recorded market probability score.
Positive favors the model; negative favors the market. Not a profit estimate.
Calibration
Compare the average forecast with how often YES occurred in each populated bin. Small bins are noisy. Empty bins are omitted.
20.0%–30.0% bin · 1 event
30.0%–40.0% bin · 4 events
40.0%–50.0% bin · 45 events
50.0%–60.0% bin · 24 events
60.0%–70.0% bin · 7 events
Bin lower bounds are included. Upper bounds are excluded, except the final bin includes 100%.
Review 287 excluded records or snapshots
- Forecast · 6adb9a8a1481d7469e58e448
not resolved
- Forecast · 6adb97ba474b227312e0d353
not resolved
- Forecast · 6adb7aa824a44e92431759b3
not resolved
- Forecast · 6adb562b85e71ef4a3726e49
not resolved
- Forecast · 6adb3ee518088e9b67d10031
not resolved
- Forecast · 6adb3b918f6749f7ca4dc4e3
not resolved
- Forecast · 6adab0df3b3457ce462a6a29
not resolved
- Forecast · 6adab057b9c018a8dd50371d
not resolved
- Forecast · 6adab0568474da5516928157
not resolved
- Forecast · 6adab0550625594ce60f77ff
not resolved
- Forecast · 6adaaecdb27feb94188544eb
not resolved
- Forecast · 6adab054a8bf2617ba0b8343
not resolved
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not resolved
- Forecast · 6adaaec9df8398c27d93b6d3
not resolved
- Forecast · 6adaaec4049d5faaa8a77025
not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
- Forecast · 6ad685feac1290cd4f5d084e
not resolved
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not resolved
- Forecast · 6ad685eec1f2ba2964f9df90
not resolved
- Forecast · 6ad62aed69379cbe7d61190e
not resolved
- Forecast · 6ad62aebc65860525f96dcb0
not resolved
- Forecast · 6ad62ae6a9705ea22a80ab9e
not resolved
- Forecast · 6ad62ae25cd3b24dec103a15
not resolved
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not resolved
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not resolved
- Forecast · 6ad6231b4596a419d5582f34
not resolved
- Forecast · 6ad6231aba0623970c1db708
not resolved
- Forecast · 6ad6231855680cddd6e02eaa
not resolved
- Forecast · 6ad62314d49d0abb81e61e04
not resolved
- Forecast · 6ada5f8311a353d8bd3a6d97
conflicting event records
- Forecast · 6ada5fa17f4bd9335d6bc736
conflicting event records
- Forecast · 6ada5ed3360c8acbef465dcf
conflicting event records
- Forecast · 6ada5ee0befb9de4ce303522
conflicting event records
- Forecast · 6ada5be5a2077efdd28a701f
conflicting event records
- Forecast · 6ada5b1ebb4e0d45776a6633
conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
- Forecast · 6ada553d47e080a85ff8d4b8
conflicting event records
- Forecast · 6ada553ba42bfe50ee5e7e9a
conflicting event records
- Forecast · 6ada5539aea85b50ebf10205
conflicting event records
- Forecast · 6ada5459254b0f8a3f345ba4
conflicting event records
- Forecast · 6ada5456f2d6fe5fd19a85d8
conflicting event records
- Forecast · 6ada53d53aeb0bd7f4b0da8b
conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
- Forecast · 6ada53723df992aa529e5524
conflicting event records
- Forecast · 6ada52265433dc3dd465f23f
conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
- Forecast · 6ada52275540e5fa640f70aa
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- Forecast · 6ada520913d6601b610352c9
conflicting event records
- Forecast · 6ada51611f5c1d099d988d38
conflicting event records
- Forecast · 6ada51600c35b5bfc28d100a
conflicting event records
- Forecast · 6ada515f647cdbb0cf24c6e7
conflicting event records
- Forecast · 6ada513ef24969ce5cc6fd34
conflicting event records
- Forecast · 6ada50a0e87ee9a837b8c76b
conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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- Forecast · 6ada4a355f1a65e7a67e8392
conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
- Forecast · 6ad9f47fd66ab62452909ec6
conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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conflicting event records
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- Forecast · 6ad61af9bb122417256f8623
conflicting event records
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